ICMPD’s Migration Outlook presents a brief analysis of migration and policy trends and provides an outlook on developments and events to watch out for this year.
ICMPD Migration Outlook 2026
Using analysis of ongoing migration and policy trends in the EU and beyond, the Migration Outlook gives a preview of the issues, events, and developments to look out for in the coming year.
Along with the decline in irregular migration and Europe’s strengthened border security efforts, the underlying drivers of displacement from conflict remain volatile globally. Meanwhile, the region will (and must) continue its efforts in filling the labour demographic gaps more strategically. But with peace and security worsening in more than 87 countries, major crises can rapidly shift migration routes; risking to destabilise key regions and increase pressure along established corridors.
Here are 10 key issues in 2026 that can shape international migration:
- Record conflict levels sustaining high displacement risks
- Global crises as the great unknown in Europe’s migration outlook
- Growing impacts of cuts to humanitarian aid and refugee support
- Deepened EU–North Africa relations amid migration pressures and labour mobility initiatives
- The new pact and the hard slog of implementation
- The push for tangible results after setting a new returns framework
- A sustained “realpolitik turn” in migration policy
- Labour migration in EU geopolitics
- The rise of a skills-based approach
- Two scenarios after the US strike in Venezuela
Region-specific issues of the Migration Outlook, developed by the ICMPD Regional Coordination Offices and grounded in local expertise, will follow.
The findings, projections, and analyses presented in this report are based on the most recent data and trends available at the time of publication. However, migration dynamics are inherently complex and subject to a range of uncertainties and contingencies, including unforeseen political, economic, environmental, and social developments. As such, the views expressed in this report may not fully reflect future conditions or outcomes. Readers are encouraged to interpret the findings with an understanding of these inherent limitations.