Four million people, one crossroads: Charting the future of temporary protection

Published 26.05.2025

#Integration and social cohesion #Legal and labour mobility #Policy #Return, readmission and reintegration #Asylum, refugees and international protection

Summary

The EU’s temporary protection (TP) regime for persons displaced by the war in Ukraine has now entered its fourth year, with a legal end date currently set for 4 March 2026. As the deadline approaches, a critical policy question looms: What future awaits the more than 4 million beneficiaries of temporary protection (BTPs) currently residing in EU Member States (MSs)?

This policy paper explores the strategic options available to the EU and its MSs following the expiration of the current Council Implementing Decision (Council of the European Union, 2024). Should the TP mechanism be extended, replaced with a new EU-wide instrument, or terminated, leaving MSs to chart their own course? Each path carries distinct legal, political, practical and humanitarian implications. By examining the tradeoffs and potential consequences of different policy directions, this paper aims to inform ongoing and upcoming discussions on the future of TP, balancing the interests of the EU and its MSs, Ukraine, and, above all, the BTPs currently residing in the EU.

Authors

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Marina Grama