Martin Wagner

The EU’s temporary protection (TP) regime for persons displaced by the war in Ukraine has now entered its fourth year, with a legal end date currently set for 4 March 2026. As the deadline approaches, a critical policy question looms: What future awaits the more than 4 million beneficiaries of temporary protection (BTPs) currently residing in EU Member States (MSs)?

This policy paper explores the strategic options available to the EU and its MSs following the expiration of the current Council Implementing Decision (Council of the European Union, 2024). Should the TP mechanism be extended, replaced with a new EU-wide instrument, or terminated, leaving MSs to chart their own course? Each path carries distinct legal, political, practical and humanitarian implications. By examining the tradeoffs and potential consequences of different policy directions, this paper aims to inform ongoing and upcoming discussions on the future of TP, balancing the interests of the EU and its MSs, Ukraine, and, above all, the BTPs currently residing in the EU.

This policy brief gives a 360-degree overview on what we currently know about the extent of irregular migration across the EU. Based on MIrreM’s analysis and aggregation of estimates available for 12 European countries (including the UK) in the period 2016 to 2023, the irregular migrant population can be estimated at between 2.6 and 3.2 million. The previous Clandestino estimate was 1.8 to 3.8 million for the same 12 countries in 2008. This suggests that the number of the irregular migrant population has not substantially changed at the aggregate level for these countries – although there have been important changes in individual countries. In addition, the policy brief also surveys what information is available and still lacking in regard to trends and patterns of irregular movement, including what information we will have on ‘overstayers’, a key proportion of the irregular migrant population identified under the Clandestino project.

This working paper analyses EU policies, legal categories, rights and the options for and limits to returning irregular migrants. It includes the analysis of EU legal and policy frameworks on irregular migration, including their nexus with other policy areas (such as asylum, labour migration, and trafficking). It examines EU policies that are deemed to prevent irregular migration, but in fact create pathways into irregularity, and it describes EU legal options for pathways out of irregularity.