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This publication provides a regional perspective to ICMPD’s Migration Outlook 2026, delving into key current and emerging migration trends in the Mediterranean region, with a focus on countries of North Africa and the Middle East. Whilst it does not have the ambition to foretell the future or cover all relevant trends, the Mediterranean Migration Outlook aims to highlight significant scenarios to consider in 2026 based on the analysis of recent data and policy developments.

ICMPD’s Migration Outlook presents a brief analysis of recent migration and policy trends and provides an outlook on developments and events to watch out for in 2026. It does not claim to foretell the future or to cover all relevant trends. It aims to use past experience and highlight what might happen, as well as what is important to consider.

The EU’s temporary protection (TP) regime for persons displaced by the war in Ukraine has now entered its fourth year, with a legal end date currently set for 4 March 2026. As the deadline approaches, a critical policy question looms: What future awaits the more than 4 million beneficiaries of temporary protection (BTPs) currently residing in EU Member States (MSs)?

This policy paper explores the strategic options available to the EU and its MSs following the expiration of the current Council Implementing Decision (Council of the European Union, 2024). Should the TP mechanism be extended, replaced with a new EU-wide instrument, or terminated, leaving MSs to chart their own course? Each path carries distinct legal, political, practical and humanitarian implications. By examining the tradeoffs and potential consequences of different policy directions, this paper aims to inform ongoing and upcoming discussions on the future of TP, balancing the interests of the EU and its MSs, Ukraine, and, above all, the BTPs currently residing in the EU.

This conference report synthesises the key insights, debates, and good practices from VMC2024, providing a comprehensive overview of the evolving migration governance landscape. The 15 session summaries cover a range of critical topics, from advancing the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum to strengthening labour mobility frameworks and migration diplomacy. Additionally, a key takeaways commentary distils five central themes of the discussions: optimising route-based migration approaches, enhancing the external dimension of migration policy, strengthening labour mobility partnerships, ensuring the EU Pact remains fit for purpose, and addressing public demands for stricter policies while maintaining protection frameworks.

This analytical report explores the challenges Ukraine and Moldova face in aligning their migration, asylum, and border management policies with EU standards as part of their accession process. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, both countries received EU candidate status, sparking a renewed focus on the enlargement process. Ukraine’s unique position as a country in active conflict and Moldova’s geopolitical vulnerabilities amplify the complexity of their accession.

In 2025, the political world and the world of migration will continue to experience high levels of volatility. This will be marked by systemic rivalry between the world’s great powers, a polynodal international order, greater state fragility, an increasing number of violent conflicts, rising terrorism, the weaponisation of energy and food insecurity. Below are the ten key migration issues to look out for in 2025 that can shape international migration.

The Annual Report takes stock of the milestones, opportunities and challenges in the past year, along with recurring issues that have surfaced to reshape the migration discourse.

This work was designed to shed light on past and current dynamics that influence international migration (from and within the region), gather the perspectives and analyse the narratives of Unaccompanied and Separated Children (UASC) in an attempt to understand the reasons that underpin the mobility of unaccompanied and separated children from and within the region, also with a view to provide recommendations on how to better provide for their specific needs in different contexts. The study placed a special emphasis on 3 selected countries in the MENA region (Morocco, Jordan and Lebanon) while valuable information and data gathered in 2 European Union (EU) countries, Greece and Spain, were also used.

ICMPD’s Migration Outlook presents a brief analysis of recent migration and policy trends and provides an outlook on developments and events to watch out for in 2024.

The talent that refugees possess is often overlooked in policy and public discussions. Skills-based policies such as complementary labour pathways, which facilitate refugee labour mobility, can bring tangible benefits for refugees, receiving employers and economies, and countries of first asylum. This policy brief, based on desk research and interviews with dozens of stakeholders, shares policy options for expanding complementary labour pathways in the EU.

On 15 and 16 November 2022, the Ministerial Conference of the Salzburg Forum took place in Bucharest, Romania. ICMPD Director General Michael Spindelegger was invited to speak on behalf of ICMPD.