Publications

This analytical report examines the political challenges and responses to migration driven by climate and environmental changes (MECC) across the non-EU Prague Process states (non-EU PPS). It offers evidence of cases substantiating the climate change-migration nexus and elaborates on the impact that climate change can have on migration movements. It investigates the role of the EU in supporting climate adaptation in non-EU PPS, while reflecting on the impact that latent and ongoing conflicts, often interrelated with water scarcity and mismanagement of (already scant) natural resources, may have in exacerbating climate vulnerability and migration movements. The report illustrates relevant national protection practices covering a wide range of people, both nationals and non-nationals, affected by climate and environmental factors. It also analyses the protection frameworks available to MECC at the national and international level.

Authors:

Dr. Chiara Scissa, Research Fellow in EU Law at University of Bologna | This publication was produced in the framework of the Prague Process Migration Observatory. The Prague Process is funded by the European Union through the Migration Partnership Facility (MPF), which is implemented by the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD).

This compilation showcases in-depth analyses and research findings on migration trends, policy developments, and the various challenges and opportunities within the Prague Process region. The selected works from 2023 and 2024 reflect the Observatory’s commitment to the six thematic areas outlined in the Prague Process Action Plan 2023-2027.

This working paper is aimed at researchers and others interested in understanding and classifying policy and practical approaches to migrant irregularity. Addressing irregular migration has become an important focus within the migration policy field. Policymakers tend to emphasise the need to address irregular arrivals, yet in fact have a wide range of policy responses at their disposal. MIrreM research has highlighted the wide range of policy responses to the presence of irregular migrants, including how policies provide pathways into and out of irregularity (Hendow et al., 2024); this working paper aims to classify them within a typology. It builds on the existing MIrreM conceptualisation of migrant irregularity (Kraler & Ahrens, 2023), focusing on the intersection between the pathways into and out of irregularity and the stocks of irregular migrants.

This policy brief gives a 360-degree overview on what we currently know about the extent of irregular migration across the EU. Based on MIrreM’s analysis and aggregation of estimates available for 12 European countries (including the UK) in the period 2016 to 2023, the irregular migrant population can be estimated at between 2.6 and 3.2 million. The previous Clandestino estimate was 1.8 to 3.8 million for the same 12 countries in 2008. This suggests that the number of the irregular migrant population has not substantially changed at the aggregate level for these countries – although there have been important changes in individual countries. In addition, the policy brief also surveys what information is available and still lacking in regard to trends and patterns of irregular movement, including what information we will have on ‘overstayers’, a key proportion of the irregular migrant population identified under the Clandestino project.

This analysis roots itself in the socio-legal examination of individuals’ experiences purchasing migration-related services from service providers in the opportunistic economy while navigating migration policy instruments. The findings of this analysis hold relevance for all types of digital pre-border processing systems, ranging from asylum to labour migration instruments. This research culminates in the development of clear criteria by which policymakers can counteract the emergence of illicit economies based on their migration systems, with benefits both for users navigating these systems and for states seeking to achieve the uniform and non-discriminatory implementation of their migration policies.

Authors: 

Andrew Fallone, doctoral researcher at the University of Cambridge Institute of Criminology | This publication was produced in the framework of the Prague Process Migration Observatory. The Prague Process is funded by the European Union through the Migration Partnership Facility (MPF), which is implemented by the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD).

As part of the EUROMED Migration (EMM) studies, in partnership with the European Union Institute Migration Policy Centre Observatory on Public Attitudes to Migration (OPAM), EMM is proud to give exclusive access to the publication ‘Storytelling as Strategic Communication on Migration.’ Practitioners regularly recommend storytelling as an effective means of strategic communication about migration. Storytelling is distinct from other forms of communication due to its ability to clear and retain attention, disarm critical thought, and provide an opportunity for the storyteller to demonstrate a large range of skills and thus enhance their credibility. Experimental evidence supports the notion that storytelling is more persuasive than, for example, appeals to authority using experts. This report provides the first review of the academic literature on the characteristics and effects of storytelling and how this might be best used for migration communication and outlines seven best practices according to these criteria and demonstrates them using examples. 

This research aims to assess PARIM-II in providing the potential migrants with the necessary information to make informed decisions about their futures, potentially reducing irregular migration from Pakistan to the EU and other countries. The insights gained from the research aim to guide future campaigns and build sustainable structures for migration information and awareness raising in Pakistan.

This policy brief highlights main directions in Russia’s migration policy since the 2022 invasion and underscores the implications of these developments for the Prague Process region. It calls for strategic action to strengthen cooperation with Central Asian states to create alternative labour migration pathways and reduce reliance on Russia, counter the use of migrants as a hybrid tool to challenge European members and work to return displaced Ukrainians, particularly children, home from Russia.

Authors: 

Jeff Sahadeo and Nicholas Morrison | This publication was produced in the framework of the Prague Process Migration Observatory. The Prague Process is funded by the European Union through the Migration Partnership Facility (MPF), which is implemented by the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD).

Der vorliegende Bericht präsentiert die Ergebnisse des Forschungsprojekts FIMAS reCOV, das die Integrationsprozesse von Geflüchteten in Österreich untersucht. Im Fokus stehen die Integrationsentwicklungen der Ankunftskohorte 2014-2018, bestehend aus Asylberechtigten und subsidiär Schutzberechtigten, die in diesem Zeitraum aus den Hauptherkunftsländern Syrien, Afghanistan, Irak und Iran nach Österreich geflüchtet sind. Die Analyse basiert auf den Umfrage-Daten von fünf Erhebungswellen der FIMAS-Längsschnittstudie, die in den Jahren 2018 bis 2024 durchgeführt wurde, insgesamt über 9.800 Befragungen von Geflüchteten.

In 2025, the political world and the world of migration will continue to experience high levels of volatility. This will be marked by systemic rivalry between the world’s great powers, a polynodal international order, greater state fragility, an increasing number of violent conflicts, rising terrorism, the weaponisation of energy and food insecurity. Below are the ten key migration issues to look out for in 2025 that can shape international migration.

Technological advancements are reshaping border management across the EU and beyond. In this ICMPD Working Paper, the authors examine the current state-of-the-art in border management technologies, assessing both their operational benefits and the risks they pose. It provides an overview of the latest advancements and trends in this regard, as related to its role in contemporary border management, with a specific focus on their application within the EU. 

Drawing on expert discussions ICMPD has convened or participated in across international and regional fora, this paper analyses these technological developments as related to their functionality for border management processes (border surveillance and pre-screening; risk analysis, nowcasting, early warning, and forecasting; database management and interoperability; and process facilitation). It also highlights key findings and takeaways policymakers and practitioners should take into account as they consider integrating new technological advancements in their border management strategies.

Dieser Bericht fasst die wichtigsten Ergebnisse der INTAKE Studie zur Arbeitsmarktintegration von geflüchteten Frauen aus der Ukraine in Österreich, Deutschland und Polen zusammen. Die Studie basiert auf einer vergleichenden Analyse der rechtlichen Rahmenbedingungen, der Arbeitsmärkte und der Integrationssysteme in den drei genannten Ländern. Datengrundlage sind Interviews mit Expert:innen und geflüchteten Frauen, die Analyse bestehender Studien zur Arbeitsmarktintegration von Geflüchteten sowie den Integrationssystemen in den drei Ländern. Zudem wurde eine Social- Media-Analyse öffentlich zugänglicher Gruppen ukrainischer Geflüchteter auf den Plattformen Facebook und Telegram durchgeführt. Der Bericht wurde aus Mitteln des EU AMIF – Programms sowie des österreichischen Bundeskanzleramts finanziert.

ICMPD’s Regional Migration Outlook for the Silk Routes region presents a brief analysis of recent regional migration and policy trends and provides an outlook on developments and events to watch out for in 2025.

The Eastern Europe and Central Asia (EECA) Migration Outlook presents an analysis of the key events and trends that shaped migration in the EECA region in 2024.

This brief assesses the state of Ukraine’s energy system, and its impact on the population, and discusses the potential for further forced migration to the EU.

Authors:

Franck Düvell, Institute for Migration Research and Intercultural Studies (IMIS), Osnabruck University. | This publication was produced in the framework of the Prague Process Migration Observatory. The Prague Process is funded by the European Union through the Migration Partnership Facility (MPF), which is implemented by the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD).

This publication provides a regional perspective on ICMPD’s Migration Outlook 2025, delving into key current and emerging migration trends in the Mediterranean region, with a focus on the countries of North Africa and the Middle East.

Despite the emphasis placed on return within EU migration management strategies, existing policies often fail to address the lived realities of returnees. They frequently result in exclusion, stigma, and in some cases, inefficient migration management outcomes. As the research highlights, prevailing return policies often silence returnees, overlooking their agency and perspectives.

Drawing on fieldwork conducted in Georgia, Iraq, Nigeria and Türkiye, the brief explores how dominant narratives and discourses disconnect returnees from return and reintegration policies, and offers practical, actionable steps for policymakers and practitioners seeking to develop return and reintegration frameworks that are more effective, human-centred, and grounded in the realities of returnees themselves.

Key recommendations focus on enhancing meaningful engagement of returnees in policymaking processes, strengthening operational strategies to meet returnees’ needs, and improving communication channels to bridge the gap between policy and practice.

Authors

Nazanine NOZARIAN (ICMPD), Madeleine HOELD (ICMPD), Sabeth KESSLER (ICMPD), Nassim MAJIDI (Samuel Hall), Juliette SAMMAN (Samuel Hall), Lisa PFISTER (Samuel Hall), Marta ROCHA (Samuel Hall), Daniel PROVOST (Samuel Hall)

This report analyses the policies and practices of countries that have successfully engaged their diaspora communities and aims to provide valuable insights and policy recommendations. A well-defined and comprehensive diaspora engagement strategy will not only strengthen collaboration between Ukrainian diaspora organisations and government institutions but also facilitate long-term and sustainable support mechanisms. Through this research, the aim was to provide a knowledge base that will guide the development and then implementation of targeted policies and programmes, leading to a more impactful approach to diaspora engagement in Ukraine.

Authors:

Giulia Mori, Júlia Puigdomènech Vidal, Melissa Siegel, Maastricht University & UNU-MERIT.

The EU’s temporary protection (TP) regime for persons displaced by the war in Ukraine has now entered its fourth year, with a legal end date currently set for 4 March 2026. As the deadline approaches, a critical policy question looms: What future awaits the more than 4 million beneficiaries of temporary protection (BTPs) currently residing in EU Member States (MSs)?

This policy paper explores the strategic options available to the EU and its MSs following the expiration of the current Council Implementing Decision (Council of the European Union, 2024). Should the TP mechanism be extended, replaced with a new EU-wide instrument, or terminated, leaving MSs to chart their own course? Each path carries distinct legal, political, practical and humanitarian implications. By examining the tradeoffs and potential consequences of different policy directions, this paper aims to inform ongoing and upcoming discussions on the future of TP, balancing the interests of the EU and its MSs, Ukraine, and, above all, the BTPs currently residing in the EU.

This roadmap offers a comprehensive overview of the project, documenting the project’s implementation across its stages. The Background and Context section highlights how EMLINK aligns with national policies and the rationale for fostering entrepreneurial mobility. The Objectives of the Roadmap emphasise its dual purpose as an implementation guide and a resource for future entrepreneurial mobility programmes. 

This publication was produced with the financial support of the European Union, implemented by ICMPD through the Migration Partnership Facility. Its contents are the sole responsibility of ICMPD and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Union.

This analytical report explores the challenges Ukraine and Moldova face in aligning their migration, asylum, and border management policies with EU standards as part of their accession process. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, both countries received EU candidate status, sparking a renewed focus on the enlargement process. Ukraine’s unique position as a country in active conflict and Moldova’s geopolitical vulnerabilities amplify the complexity of their accession.

This conference report synthesises the key insights, debates, and good practices from VMC2024, providing a comprehensive overview of the evolving migration governance landscape. The 15 session summaries cover a range of critical topics, from advancing the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum to strengthening labour mobility frameworks and migration diplomacy. Additionally, a key takeaways commentary distils five central themes of the discussions: optimising route-based migration approaches, enhancing the external dimension of migration policy, strengthening labour mobility partnerships, ensuring the EU Pact remains fit for purpose, and addressing public demands for stricter policies while maintaining protection frameworks.