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ICMPD Migration Outlook Eastern Europe Central Asia 2022

Document

Published February 2022

Four million people, one crossroads: Charting the future of temporary protection

Published May 2025

#Return and Reintegration #Asylum and International Protection #Policy #Legal and Labour Migration #Integration and Social Cohesion

Four million people, one crossroads: Charting the future of temporary protection

Summary

The EU’s temporary protection (TP) regime for persons displaced by the war in Ukraine has now entered its fourth year, with a legal end date currently set for 4 March 2026. As the deadline approaches, a critical policy question looms: What future awaits the more than 4 million beneficiaries of temporary protection (BTPs) currently residing in EU Member States (MSs)?

This policy paper explores the strategic options available to the EU and its MSs following the expiration of the current Council Implementing Decision (Council of the European Union, 2024). Should the TP mechanism be extended, replaced with a new EU-wide instrument, or terminated, leaving MSs to chart their own course? Each path carries distinct legal, political, practical and humanitarian implications. By examining the tradeoffs and potential consequences of different policy directions, this paper aims to inform ongoing and upcoming discussions on the future of TP, balancing the interests of the EU and its MSs, Ukraine, and, above all, the BTPs currently residing in the EU.

Authors

The Way Forward in Establishing Effective Transnational Referral Mechanisms in Trafficking Cases - A Report Based on Experiences in South-Eastern...

Document

Published January 2012

North Macedonia / Serbia / Albania / Bosnia and Herzegovina / Bulgaria / Kosovo* / Croatia / Montenegro / Moldova (Republic of) / Romania

#Cross Cutting Topics #Victim Identification #Trafficking in Human Beings #Trafficking Network #Referral #Human Trafficking #Prevention

Handbook on Anti-Trafficking Data Collection in South-Eastern Europe: Developing Regional Criteria - second edition

Document

Published August 2010

North Macedonia / Serbia / Bulgaria / Bosnia and Herzegovina / Albania / Kosovo* / Croatia / Slovenia / Romania

#Trafficking in Human Beings #Human Trafficking #Cross Cutting Topics

Listening to Victims: Experiences of identification, return and assistance in South-Eastern-Europe

Document

Published January 2007

North Macedonia / Serbia / Bosnia and Herzegovina / Croatia / Albania / Bulgaria / Kosovo* / Moldova (Republic of) / Montenegro / Romania

#Human Trafficking #Victim Protection #Trafficking in Human Beings #Victim Identification #Anti-Trafficking Policy #Referral

Guidelines for the Development of a Transnational Referral Mechanism for Trafficked Persons: South-Eastern Europe

Document

Published January 2009

Albania / Bosnia and Herzegovina / Bulgaria / Croatia / Kosovo* / North Macedonia / Montenegro / Moldova (Republic of) / Romania / Serbia

#Victim Identification #Human Trafficking #Anti-Trafficking Policy #Referral #Trafficking in Human Beings #Victim Protection

Cooperation beyond Borders - Development of Transnational Referral Mechanism for Trafficked Persons

Document

Published January 2009

Albania / Bosnia and Herzegovina / Bulgaria / Croatia / Kosovo* / North Macedonia / Montenegro / Moldova (Republic of) / Serbia / Romania

#Anti-Trafficking Policy #Cross Cutting Topics #Human Trafficking #Trafficking in Human Beings

Handbook on Anti-Trafficking Data Collection in South-Eastern Europe: Developing Regional Criteria

Document

Published January 2007

Albania / Bulgaria / Croatia / Kosovo* / North Macedonia / Montenegro / Moldova (Republic of) / Romania / Serbia / Bosnia and Herzegovina

#Human Trafficking #Anti-Trafficking Policy #Trafficking in Human Beings #Cross Cutting Topics

Regional Standard for Anti-Trafficking Training for Judges and Prosecutors in SEE

Document

Published January 2004

Albania / Bosnia and Herzegovina / Bulgaria / Croatia / Greece / Hungary / Moldova (Republic of) / Montenegro / North Macedonia / Serbia / Romania / Slovenia / Türkiye

#Cross Cutting Topics #Human Trafficking #Trafficking in Human Beings

Regional Standards for Anti-Trafficking Police Training in SEE

Document

Published January 2004

Albania / Bosnia and Herzegovina / Kosovo* / Montenegro / North Macedonia / Serbia / Türkiye

#Trafficking in Human Beings #Cross Cutting Topics #Human Trafficking

Neue Perspektiven: Arbeitsmarktintegration von geflüchteten Frauen aus der Ukraine

Policy Brief

Published February 2025

Ukraine / Austria / Germany / Poland

From Belarus to the EU: Migration Trends and Strategic Responses

Policy Brief

Published June 2025

From Belarus to the EU: Migration Trends and Strategic Responses

Summary

In recent years, Belarus has experienced profound migratory shifts, driven by political repression, geopolitical tensions and regional conflicts. Following the disputed 2020 presidential elections, up to 500,000 Belarusians fled to neighbouring countries, with many seeking stability and opportunities in the European Union (EU). At the same time, Belarus became a transit hub for migrants from the Middle East, as part of state-orchestrated migration flows aimed at pressuring the EU, and a refuge for over 20,000 Ukrainians displaced by war. These dynamics have challenged regional migration policies, highlighting tensions between national security, economic interests and humanitarian obligations. The evolving landscape underscores the need for EU Member States to develop balanced and adaptive migration strategies that effectively respond to state-orchestrated migration pressures from Belarus. This Policy Brief discusses Belarus’ migration trends and their implications for the EU.

This publication was produced in the framework of the Prague Process Migration Observatory. The Prague Process is funded by the European Union through the Migration Partnership Facility (MPF), which is implemented by the International Centre for Migration Policy Development (ICMPD).

Authors

Agnieszka Kulesa

Publications